Making sense of key developments around the world

The Riskline Informer is a series of analytical pieces interpreting and forecasting key political, security and social issues affecting global affairs.

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14 March 2018

Will the ongoing erosion of democratic institutions and crackdown on the opposition affect the Maldives’ tourism industry?

The Maldives’ prevailing political tensions will continue to hamper its tourism industry in the near and medium terms, but new resorts and airport projects that are expected to be completed by early 2019 are likely to boost tourism revenue in the long-term.

27 February 2018

Will Italian elections see the rise of populists and trigger a new European political crisis?

Despite the presence of large populists parties, upcoming Italian elections are unlikely to trigger a new political crisis in the Eurozone thanks to a proportional electoral law that, while unable to return strong majorities, promotes post-election negotiations and coalition building.

19 February 2018

South African politics at a crossroad – is the Zuma era decidedly over?

While the 14 February resignation of former President Jacob Zuma and the consequential election of ANC leader Cyril Ramaphosa to take his place certainly increased voters’ hopes for political change in South Africa, the unwavering influence of Zuma and a lack of time for Ramaphosa to materialise his reformist vision could not only endanger the party’s standing for the 2019 elections, but also the belief in the political system itself, making developments over the next months crucial for the nation.

31 January 2018

The Pyeongchang Winter Olympics and their impact on inter-Korean relations

Despite the significance of the recent diplomatic improvement between Seoul and Pyongyang ahead of the Olympics, a de-escalation of tensions on the Korean peninsula remains unlikely in the medium- and long-term owing to the strategic role of Pyongyang’s nuclear programme for North Korea.

17 January 2018

Anti-government protests in the wake of 2017 general elections in Nepal

Anti-government protests will continue in the Kathmandu Valley with the potential to escalate to unrest as they spread nationwide in the near-term, due to the incumbent government’s refusal to step down in the wake of the 2017 general elections.

21 December 2017

2017 Global Risk Review

Riskline Informer looks back at important developments of 2017 and forecasts about the security environment in 2018

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