December 13, 2017 / Riskline Informer

The long-term impact of the US recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel

While global unrest and a ‘third intifada’ look unlikely in the short-term, the US government’s recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel is likely to further damage the credibility of the US and its local allies in the MENA region, empowering Iran and China in the long-term.

On 6 December 2017, United States (US) President Donald Trump announced his government’s recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, with its embassy – currently located in Tel Aviv – expected to move to Jerusalem once an appropriate building is constructed. In the immediate aftermath of the announcement US embassies around the globe issued warnings over expected protests, and demonstrations erupted across the West Bank and Gaza, parts of Israel and in cities across the Muslim world. However, in the long-term, the impact of President Trump’s decision is more likely to manifest as a slow drift away from US hegemony in the region than as a violent break.

While violent protests, which included several fatalities, erupted across the West Bank and Gaza in the wake of the announcement, the level of overall unrest has been relatively low. Protests in East Jerusalem and the Old City have been easily controlled and dispersed, and the response in Arab-majority areas of Israel has been muted. Other parts of the world, such as Iran, Pakistan, Egypt, Malaysia and Indonesia have seen large but peaceful protests, closely stage-managed by the government and under the careful scrutiny of security forces. The exception has been in Jordan and Lebanon, where the Palestinian cause remains an integral part of domestic politics.

Saudi Arabia may be one the biggest losers in the wake of the announcement. With the royal family – who are closely linked to and reliant upon the US government – currently in a state of flux as Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman attempts to solidify his hold on power, the government has been unable to distance itself from the US. While the Saudi regime would historically allow prominent clerics to espouse a virulent and outward-facing form of Islam as a form of control valve, directing local animosity abroad and ensuring religious support for the regime, bin Salman’s recent mass arrests of senior clerics and his open call for the country to adopt more progressive religious values precludes this option, heightening the risk of internal dissatisfaction. Regional perceptions of the Saudi regime supporting – or at least not defying – the US over Jerusalem, combined with existing suspicions over the country’s deadly intervention in Yemen and its recent attempts to meddle in Lebanese politics, are likely to erode support for the regime regionally, disrupting its long-term plans for the region and potentially triggering an increased interest from regional and global terror groups.

Conversely, Iran is likely to benefit from the US announcement in the medium- to long-term. With its longstanding opposition of the US and its foreign policy in the region giving it far greater legitimacy than Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), and by reframing the Palestinian cause as a Muslim concern rather than a solely Arab one, the Iranian government may be able to position itself as a champion of Muslim rights and values, increasing its regional influence, particularly among the general populace. Combined with its military and political influence in Yemen, Syria, Iraq, Lebanon and elsewhere, and its close ties to Russia and China, Iran is likely to further challenge Saudi Arabia’s position as regional hegemon.

As for the US, the decision is likely to be seen across the region as final confirmation of its pro-Israeli bias. While most Muslim-majority and Arab states will remain closely linked to the US in the short- and medium-term – through economic, political or military ties and support – the country’s bold abandonment of the pretence of impartiality, and its clear endorsement of Israel as its primary regional ally, may cause them to look further afield for support in the long-term. With Iran already on track to enter China’s NATO equivalent, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), Turkey and other states in the region may see the decision as a reason to pivot away from the US toward China. With China already prioritising the region, building its first overseas military base in Djibouti, the US is likely to see itself facing increased regional competition from China in the long-term.

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