On 15 October, former prime minister Sooronbay Jeenbekov from the Social Democratic Party of Kyrgyzstan (SDPK), Kyrgyzstan’s lead party in the ruling coalition, was elected President of Kyrgyzstan after securing 54.8 percent of the votes, replacing outgoing President Almazbek Atambayev. The polls, which saw a voter turnout of around 72.2 percent and 11 contestants, took place amid heightened tensions between Atambayev’s SDPK-led regime and an opposition coalition under the United People’s Movement (UPM), fuelled by Atambayev’s creeping attacks on his opponents, which included arrests of opposition activists in the days leading up to the election. The election of Jeenbekov, a close ally of Atambayev, has done little to ease opposition dissent towards the SPDK-led government. On 15-16 October, many opposition Ak Zhol and Ata Meken party members and supporters of the UPM’s lead presidential candidate Omurbek Babanov, held demonstrations in Talas and Osh regions, denouncing Jeenbekov’s victory and accusing the SDPK of vote-buying and voter suppression. These demonstrations are expected to continue in the near-term due to ongoing tensions between the ruling coalition and opposition parties, and gain new vigour with the potential to escalate to unrest, in the days leading up to Jeenbekov’s official inauguration on 1 December.

Kyrgyzstan stands as the first post-Soviet era country in Central Asia with a parliamentary democracy, where the president selects the prime minister, but the prime minister retains more power than the president. Since assuming power in 2011, Atambayev’s SDPK-led regime has been accused of corruption, opposition suppression and promoting personal interests of the political elite. Between 2012 and 2016, at least three prime ministers who resigned from their position were accused by the UPM of abuse of office and misappropriation of funds.

Even though Atambayev was not allowed to seek a second term as president in 2017 as per constitutional law, many opposition activists suspect that Atambayev may attempt to eventually return to power, especially after a constitutional reform championed by Atambayev to increase the power of the prime minister was approved in December 2016. At least seven opposition activists, including a potential 2017 presidential candidate who voiced concerns about the corruption in the SDPK-led government and Atambayev’s authoritarian aspirations, were jailed between March 2016 and October 2017 on charges of corruption and plotting to overthrow the government, which increased political tensions between the SDPK and UPM members.

Since early January 2017 opposition activists have periodically protested against the SDPK-led regime in Bishkek, Talas and Osh, and during these demonstrations riot police used heavy-handed force to disperse protesters and arrested dozens of UPM members. It is against this tense political backdrop that Jeenbekov will assume leadership. Having served as prime minister in Atambayev’s tightly controlled regime from April 2016 to August 2017, Jeenbekov is viewed by the UPM as a puppet of Atambayev who will continue to do his bidding during his presidency.

On 19 October, opposition Ak Zhol party leader Adakhan Madumarov announced plans to stage protests against Jeenbekov’s presidential victory and alleged 2017 election violations by the SDPK, with the support of other UPM coalition members in Bishkek and Talas, thus extending the protests nationwide. Atambayev has warned that the government would continue with harsh crackdowns and imprisonment of those planning protests, particularly in the days leading up to and during Jeenbekov’s inauguration on 1 December. Hence, further opposition protests have the potential to disrupt travel and escalate to unrest as anti-riot police will be deployed to use heavy-handed tactics to disperse demonstrators at protest flashpoints, particularly near Bishkek’s Gorky Park and the State Committee for National Security (GKNB) building, and the Central Square in Osh and Talas in the near-term.

In order to prevent prevailing political tensions in Kyrgyzstan from escalating further to a situation of unrest akin to revolutions that saw two presidents being ousted in 2005 and 2010, Jeenbekov will need to find ways to work together with opposition parties members to improve governance, tackle political corruption and prevent the jailing of his opponents, to prove that his policies and aspirations will stand apart from that of his predecessor Atambayev.