August 8, 2017 / Riskline Informer

July 2017

July 2017 Round-up: important developments and what we’re tracking for next month.

ASIA-PACIFIC (APAC)

What we tracked in July:

Following militant attacks and military operations in northern areas of Myanmar’s restive Rakhine state between October 2016 and February 2017, we have observed an uptick of violence in the region since early July. Tatmadaw forces intensified security operations against ethnic Rohingya Muslims – who form a significant minority in the state – under the pretext of eliminating suspected Islamist militants. On 9 July, at least two suspected militants were killed in a gunfight with security forces in Buthidaung, while three farmers were killed after they inadvertently stepped on a landmine in Maungdaw on 15 July. The true extent of the violence is hard to ascertain due to the strict ban on independent media operating in the region. However, reports by local eyewitnesses claim that security forces committed numerous atrocities on the Rohingya population, including incidents of unlawful detention, torture and even summary executions of anyone purported to be linked to militancy. In addition, human rights observers indicated that soldiers raided dozens of Rohingya villages and forced them into internment camps, displacing tens of thousands of people. At the same time, there have also been reports of clashes between majority Buddhist Arakanese residents and displaced Rohingya near the state capital Sittwe, resulting in several casualties. Security operations are expected to remain ongoing in the medium-term due to the continued presence of militants, particularly in the northern townships of Buthidaung, Rathedaung and Maungdaw, where most clashes and violent incidents have been reported. This, together with unabated ethnic tensions between the Arakanese and Rohingya populations, contribute to an overall volatile security situation in the state.

What we will track in August:

We’ll be watching the situation in Malé, capital of the Maldives, where there is a possibility of escalating unrest following a military lockdown of the parliament from 24 to 30 July. The lockdown was initiated by President Abdulla Yameen Abdul Gayoom to prevent opposition Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) lawmakers from entering the parliament to vote on impeaching House Speaker Abdulla Maseeh Mohamed, a close ally of Yameen. In that occasion, paramilitary troops used tear-gas shells to disperse dozens of protesters and arrested four opposition MDP lawmakers who were rallying against Yameen’s Progressive Party Maldives (PPM)-led government. While the lockdown was lifted on 31 July, Defence Minister Adam Sharif Umar promised new arrests of opposition lawmakers in the month of August on charges of damaging parliament property while attempting to storm the building during the lockdown. MDP activists have also vowed to step up campaigns against Yameen’s autocratic government in the near-term. Due to the prevailing political tension, further anti-government protests with the potential to escalate to violence are possible in Malé in the near-term. Travellers are advised to anticipate heightened security measures in the capital and avoid large gatherings near protest hotspots like the parliament, President’s Office, the MDP office on Sosun Magu and Republic Square, in Malé.

AMERICAS

What we tracked in July:

Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro claimed victory following the controversial vote to elect a 545-member Constitutional Assembly held amid unrest – in which at least 17 people were killed – on 30 July. While the National Electoral Council alleged eight million votes were cast, the opposition as well as independent observers puts the number closer to 3.6 million. The poll came on the heels of a popular, albeit symbolic, referendum called by the Democratic Unity Roundtable (MUD) on 16 July to reject the Constitutional Assembly – widely regarded as a means to keep the ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) in power – drawing over seven million people to some 2,000 voting stations. Domestic public opinion polls showed a vast majority disagreeing with the Constitutional Assembly – scheduled to hold its first session on 4 August – and members of the international community have grown increasingly concerned the country is heading towards a socialist dictatorship. With an economy in shambles, a political power struggle played out with deadly consequences on the streets and a mass exodus of citizens, the humanitarian crisis has been exacerbated by the polls in July, and tensions are only expected to increase in the medium-term.

What we will track in August:

Argentina’s largest trade unions, the Argentine Workers’ Central Union (Central de Trabajadores de la Argentina, CTA) and General Confederation of Labor (Confederación General del Trabajo, CGT), were expected to stage a mass anti-government march from San Cayetano Church in Liniers district to Plaza de Mayo in Buenos Aires on 7 August, only six days ahead of the primary legislative election in the country. Since coming to power following presidential elections in November 2015, Mauricio Macri – a pro-business candidate of the centre-right Republican Proposal (Propuesta Republicana, PRO) – had found himself rushing before his economic reforms bear fruit, with mounting pressure from workers’ unions to adjust wages for inflation as well as attempts by the opposition to pass a controversial anti-layoff bill. In late August, the CGT will again stage a ‘protest mobilisation’ on 22 August against President Macri’s policies on workers’ welfare. Despite slow economic gains in recent months, the powerful labour unions are likely to continue to use social pressures – triggered by high rates of unemployment and inflation – to push through their own agenda, linked to that of the once-ruling leftist and populist Front for Victory (Frente para la Victoria, FPV), with further protests and strike actions on the horizon in the medium-term.

EUROPE

What we tracked in July:

Throughout July, tens of thousands of protesters gathered in cities across Poland against judicial reform bills that would have given the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party significant control over the judiciary. The proposed reforms not only galvanised anti-government protesters but also jeopardised the country’s relations with the European Union (EU), which threatened to strip Poland of its vote in the European Council. The controversy surrounding the bills marked another instance of the EU and Poland clashing with each other, after having disagreed over the settlement of refugees. Following the backlash, PiS ally President Andrzej Duda gave opponents of the reforms a partial victory by vetoing two of the three bills, but ratified the third that allows the justice minister to hire and fire senior judges in regional and appeal courts. The ruling party’s push for the bills and the subsequent backlash in the form of protests and the threat of EU sanctions underscored the impact that the right-wing populist regime can have on Poland’s system of liberal democracy and political stability. A repeat of anti-government protests and strains with the EU cannot be ruled out as long as PiS remains in power.

What we will track in August:

A combination of tightened security measures, security staff shortage and the threat of strikes coinciding with the peak summer tourist season contributed to long lines at European airports and frustration among travellers, some of whom reportedly missed their flights. Wait times were most pronounced at airports in France, Portugal and Spain, where checks for non-Schengen passport holders were carried out as part of tightened external border control measures that are scheduled to be fully implemented by October. The affected airports lacked an adequate number of security staff to accommodate higher volume of passengers undergoing the new security checks. At others, strikes among security staff seeking to address grievances over pay and working conditions exacerbated the wait. Barcelona-El Prat Airport became particularly known for long lines as security staff launched an unofficial work-to-rule action, significantly slowing lines at security by using the maximum of ten minutes for checking each passenger. Frustrations will compound when security staff continue their work stoppages with 24-hour strikes set to begin in the middle of August. Without action from EU authorities, non-Schengen travellers are likely to experience long waits at crowded airports through the end of summer.

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA (MENA)

What we tracked in July:

On 14 July, two Israeli Druze policemen were fatally shot by a trio of Israeli Arab gunmen at the Gate of the Tribes on the Temple Mount in Jerusalem’s Old City. Israeli officials responded to the attack by locking down the Temple Mount and installing metal detectors outside of the al-Aqsa Mosque, as the attackers’ guns were smuggled into the compound. The Muslim Waqf religious authorities at the site, however, saw this unilateral move as an assault on Palestinian sovereignty. Israeli politicians were caught off-guard by the angry public response, as prayer rallies were held nightly in the Old City, often degenerating into clashes between police and demonstrators. Then, on 21 July, unrest in Jerusalem and the West Bank escalated sharply, leaving three Palestinians dead in Abu Dis, al-Azariya and East Jerusalem, while three Israeli citizens were killed by a Palestinian attacker in the West Bank settlement of Halamish. Unrest spread further on a daily basis, including fatal protest clashes on the Gaza-Israel border in Al-Bureij. Although the Israeli authorities replaced the metal detectors with security cameras, the public mood remained overwhelmingly hostile. Dozens of Palestinians were arrested or injured during one final round of overnight clashes at al-Aqsa Mosque on 27-28 July, before Israeli security forces removed the remaining security measures. The scale of the unrest that ensued illustrates the potential for further violent clashes, especially in response to terror attacks at security checkpoints and holy sites. Israeli leaders must now also contend with criticism by right-wing Zionist activists who feel that the official response to the crisis overly emboldened Palestinian claims to the Temple Mount.

What we will track in August:

Although Jordan and Israel have enjoyed close security cooperation for years, that relationship has been shaken by unrest in connection with a deadly shooting at the Israeli Embassy in Amman on 24 July. A Jordanian man was shot dead after reportedly attacking and wounding an Israeli security guard, who, in the ensuing scuffle, also fatally shot another Jordanian man. The Jordanian government, sensitive to public outrage over the incident, wants to put the Israeli guard on trial in an assertion of its sovereignty. Israeli officials instead insist that the guard acted properly and has diplomatic immunity. The resulting impasse has left the embassy vacant and a focal point of anti-Israel protests. While further demonstrations are possible over the issue in the near-term, it is unlikely the incident will lead to a permanent downgrading of relations. The two governments have too many shared security concerns – over Iran, the civil war in Syria and the Islamic State among others – to risk a major falling out.

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA (SSA)

What we tracked in July:

Africa has a busy electoral schedule in 2017, and July was no was exception. On tap this month were two rounds of legislative elections in the Republic of Congo (Brazzaville) and parliamentary elections in both Gabon and Senegal. In the latest, Senegalese President Macky Sall’s ruling Benno Bokk Yakaar (BBY) coalition appears, as of writing, to have won a landslide victory, taking all but three of the country’s 45 constituencies. The results don’t bode well for former President Abdoulaye Wade, who was prevented from winning a third term by Sall’s victory in 2012 and appears unlikely to pose much of a threat in the upcoming 2019 presidential elections. In Gabon, scheduled elections were postponed, again, as the government and the increasingly powerful opposition continue to work on electoral reform. The elections were first postponed in December 2016 over a lack of funds and are now scheduled for April 2018. After two rounds of legislative elections in the Republic of Congo, President Denis Sassou-Nguesso’s Congolese Labour Party (CLP) came out on top, winning an outright majority with 90 of the 151 seats in the National Assembly. Both rounds were marked by allegations of fraud as well as violence in the southern Pool region, where polling was suspended in several constituencies. It seems unlikely that any irregularities in voting will have an effect on the outcome, which only served to consolidate the power of President Sassou-Nguesso and the CLP.

What we will track in August:

Elections and related political maneuvering will again be what we’re watching across the continent in August as voters go to the polls in Rwanda, Angola, and, importantly, Kenya, where presidential and parliamentary elections will take place on 8 August. The latest polling in the east African country is contested, appearing to show an extremely close race between the incumbent, Uhuru Kenyatta, and his challenger, Raila Odinga. While the results of the polls will determine Kenya’s political trajectory over the next years, we’ll be watching for signs of violence as results come in. So far, the majority of election-related violence appears to be related to local races, and thus confined geographically. One exception to this is in the central counties, especially Laikipia, where politics, banditry and cattle raiding have combined to contribute to a wave of violent attacks ahead of the election. As such, we’re keeping an eye out for an escalation in this region – or an indication that political violence has moved from a local to a regional or national level – in the aftermath of the election. In addition to these elections, August will also see another no confidence vote against South African President Jacob Zuma – and related protests across the country – on 8 August. While Zuma has survived these votes in the past, the recent revelations in the ongoing ‘Gupta’ scandal may finally be the one that brings him down. Similarly, opposition to President Joseph Kabila is heating up again in the Democratic Republic of Congo, with demands to hold presidential election before the end of 2017. Multiple opposition groups have planned protests in Kinshasa and other cities throughout the month.

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