On 27 October, the regional government of Catalonia led by then-President Carles Puigdemont unilaterally declared independence from Spain by a controversial 70-12 vote boycotted by opposition parties. Having earlier deferred the decision for several weeks to the chagrin of his most radical supporters, independence activists rallied outside of parliament in Barcelona and across other Catalan cities in support of the declaration. Since then, the arrests of former government officials and imposition of more direct rule from Madrid have sustained support for independence even as the political leadership appears to waver ahead of new regional elections on 21 December that were set by the central government.
Citing the will of the 90 percent of pro-independence voters among the 43 percent of those who turned out for the 1 October independence referendum, the vote by Puigdemont and his allies just barely preempted an even more decisive 214-48 majority vote by the Spanish Senate to invoke Article 155 of the Constitution to strip Catalonia of its special autonomous status and impose direct rule. While the Constitutional Court took longer to formally issue its annulment of the Catalan declaration, Prime Minister and People’s Party (PP) leader Mariano Rajoy – again with the blessing of King Felipe VI – dissolved the Catalan parliament and scheduled new regional elections. The prime minister’s decision has proven unpopular in the region, as evidenced by the thousands of people who have rallied both to oppose this unprecedented legal measure and to demand the release of former Puigdemont administration officials jailed on charges of rebellion for their role in the independence campaign.
Puigdemont, after travelling to Belgium in vain to seek a mediated European Union (EU) solution, surrendered himself to local authorities but was released on bail, heading off – for the moment – further escalation. Despite a lack of any formal or informal support from the EU or any of its members, the independence movement remains determined to press its case still. But while his supporters have continued to draw huge crowds in urban areas and even coordinate strikes with sympathetic unions in Catalonia, Puigdemont’s Catalan European Democratic Party (PDeCAT) was unable to convince the Catalan Republican Left (ERC) to join in a grand alliance ahead of the 21 December vote, a worrying appearance of disunity for the pro-independence bloc as it seeks to turn popular outrage into new votes.
The Ciudadanos and Catalan Socialist parties, in the meantime, remain largely united in their anti-independence stances and are expected to maintain a strong showing – though, it is unclear if they will be able to draw out enough unionist support to take the lead and form a government. Despite the internal debates in the pro-independence bloc, it still has a strong chance of forming its own pro-independence government, buoyed, no doubt, by a huge sympathy vote in the wake of the 1 October referendum clashes as federal police bloodied voters and confiscated ballots in an operation that partially de-legitimized the election results in the public eye, and by extension, the now-annulled unilateral declaration of independence that followed.
The unionists have emerged stronger politically from this crisis despite the dislike of their methods on the pro-independence street and, to a lesser extent, by pro-independence Basque activists closely watching the outcome. The fact that the referendum was conducted irregularly and the declaration decided upon by an even small minority of activists continues to sour the overall public response to Puigdemont’s actions on 27 October: the vote is in this view seen as the work of a small cadre of hardliners, unrepresentative of the majority and “ungrateful” to the government in Madrid that granted them autonomy in 1975. Nationalist groups in Catalonia, including the right-wing Somatemps (“Minutemen”), feel more emboldened to voice their agendas even if attendance at such rallies usually lags behind pro-independence crowd sizes, such as the estimated 750,000 pro-Catalan independence demonstrators who peacefully rallied in Barcelona on 11 November.
Further demonstrations and protests remain certain in the near-term as the 21 December election approaches. While the ad hoc governing arrangements set up by Madrid have held so far, the outcome of the vote remains unclear as the polls have not shown decisive swings in the pro- and anti-independence camps at the expense of the other. Looking further afield, though, independence supporters are concerned – despite the public face put on by many officials – that the referendum has indirectly harmed the regional economy by compelling multinational corporations and major banks to move out of Barcelona lest the restive region one day find itself outside of the EU.