Riskline Informer

19 June 2018
Will Mexico’s presidential election constrain surging violence?
Record-breaking rates of violent crime amid an economic downturn and institutionalised corruption in Mexico are likely to persuade voters to opt for a third choice on 1 July. Regardless of the outcome, however, cartel-fueled violence is likely to endure.
05 June 2018
Korean Peace Process: Is the US sphere of influence in East Asia waning?
A successful detente on the Korean peninsula could lead to reduced influence of the United States in East Asian geopolitics in the long-term.
23 May 2018
The aftermath of Armenia’s Velvet Revolution: big promises and bigger uncertainties ahead
After leading the Velvet Revolution as the ‘people’s candidate’, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan will face continued challenges from the Republican Party of Armenia (RPA) in fulfilling his promises to tackle corruption and boost the economy.
10 May 2018
Elections and violence in Libya
Libyan politicians and the international community are determined to hold elections in 2018 despite various challenges and ongoing conflict. However, the build up to and the aftermath of any potential elections threaten to become another site for violence to play out.
26 April 2018
Will Malaysia’s next general elections witness a historic change in government?
Malaysians prepare to go to the polls in the country’s upcoming 14th general elections on 9 May in what is expected to be a closely-fought affair despite a less than level playing field benefitting Prime Minister Najib Razak’s ruling coalition.
11 April 2018
Extreme weather exposes US infrastructure challenges
Underinvestment and deferred maintenance have caused major disruptions to transportation networks and critical infrastructure in recent years. The impact of increasingly destructive storms only further highlights the urgency for repair and replacement.
28 March 2018
Will Hun Sen’s increasingly autocratic rule undermine Cambodia’s political stability?
Cambodia’s increasingly authoritarian government under Prime Minister Hun Sen has been criticised by the international community. However, the country’s political stability is unlikely to be adversely affected given Hun Sen’s grip on state institutions and his systematic crackdown of the opposition.
14 March 2018
Will the ongoing erosion of democratic institutions and crackdown on the opposition affect the Maldives’ tourism industry?
The Maldives’ prevailing political tensions will continue to hamper its tourism industry in the near and medium terms, but new resorts and airport projects that are expected to be completed by early 2019 are likely to boost tourism revenue in the long-term.
27 February 2018
Will Italian elections see the rise of populists and trigger a new European political crisis?
Despite the presence of large populists parties, upcoming Italian elections are unlikely to trigger a new political crisis in the Eurozone thanks to a proportional electoral law that, while unable to return strong majorities, promotes post-election negotiations and coalition building.
19 February 2018
South African politics at a crossroad – is the Zuma era decidedly over?
While the 14 February resignation of former President Jacob Zuma and the consequential election of ANC leader Cyril Ramaphosa to take his place certainly increased voters’ hopes for political change in South Africa, the unwavering influence of Zuma and a lack of time for Ramaphosa to materialise his reformist vision could not only endanger the party’s standing for the 2019 elections, but also the belief in the political system itself, making developments over the next months crucial for the nation.
31 January 2018
The Pyeongchang Winter Olympics and their impact on inter-Korean relations
Despite the significance of the recent diplomatic improvement between Seoul and Pyongyang ahead of the Olympics, a de-escalation of tensions on the Korean peninsula remains unlikely in the medium- and long-term owing to the strategic role of Pyongyang’s nuclear programme for North Korea.
17 January 2018
Anti-government protests in the wake of 2017 general elections in Nepal
Anti-government protests will continue in the Kathmandu Valley with the potential to escalate to unrest as they spread nationwide in the near-term, due to the incumbent government’s refusal to step down in the wake of the 2017 general elections.
21 December 2017
2017 Global Risk Review
Riskline Informer looks back at important developments of 2017 and forecasts about the security environment in 2018
13 December 2017
The long-term impact of the US recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel
While global unrest and a ‘third intifada’ look unlikely in the short-term, the US government’s recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel is likely to further damage the credibility of the US and its local allies in the MENA region, empowering Iran and China in the long-term.
07 December 2017
Peace at last? The Rohingya refugee deal and its implications for stability in Myanmar’s Rakhine state
The recent agreement signed by Myanmar and Bangladesh to repatriate Rohingya refugees in the latter country could lead to a certain degree of stability in Myanmar’s Rakhine state but is unlikely to provide a lasting solution to the crisis.
28 November 2017
Political instability in post-election Kenya
After confirming the reelection of President Kenyatta, Kenya’s Supreme Court announcement could lead to further unrest nationwide and pave the way for a period of instability in a country once considered an increasingly stable democracy in East Africa.
22 November 2017
Japan and the threat of North Korea’s missile development programme
With the re-election of Shinzo Abe as prime minister, Japan is expected to adopt a tougher stance on North Korea’s nuclear and missile development programme.
15 November 2017
Constitutional crisis continues following Catalan independence campaign
After annulling the unilateral Catalan independence declaration and dismissing parliament to hold new regional elections, unionists are emboldened to see the region brought closer into the federal fold.
07 November 2017
Xi Jinping and China's 19th National CPC Congress
The latest congress of the Communist Party of China elevates Xi Jinping's absolute power and paves the way for China's superpower status.
30 October 2017
Political protests following presidential election in Kyrgyzstan
Anti-government protests will continue in Kyrgyzstan following the election of the ruling SDPK-led coalition’s favoured candidate, Sooronbay Jeenbekov, as the country’s next president.