Riskline Informer

17 January 2018
Anti-government protests in the wake of 2017 general elections in Nepal
Anti-government protests will continue in the Kathmandu Valley with the potential to escalate to unrest as they spread nationwide in the near-term, due to the incumbent government’s refusal to step down in the wake of the 2017 general elections.
21 December 2017
2017 Global Risk Review
Riskline Informer looks back at important developments of 2017 and forecasts about the security environment in 2018
13 December 2017
The long-term impact of the US recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel
While global unrest and a ‘third intifada’ look unlikely in the short-term, the US government’s recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel is likely to further damage the credibility of the US and its local allies in the MENA region, empowering Iran and China in the long-term.
07 December 2017
Peace at last? The Rohingya refugee deal and its implications for stability in Myanmar’s Rakhine state
The recent agreement signed by Myanmar and Bangladesh to repatriate Rohingya refugees in the latter country could lead to a certain degree of stability in Myanmar’s Rakhine state but is unlikely to provide a lasting solution to the crisis.
28 November 2017
Political instability in post-election Kenya
After confirming the reelection of President Kenyatta, Kenya’s Supreme Court announcement could lead to further unrest nationwide and pave the way for a period of instability in a country once considered an increasingly stable democracy in East Africa.
22 November 2017
Japan and the threat of North Korea’s missile development programme
With the re-election of Shinzo Abe as prime minister, Japan is expected to adopt a tougher stance on North Korea’s nuclear and missile development programme.
15 November 2017
Constitutional crisis continues following Catalan independence campaign
After annulling the unilateral Catalan independence declaration and dismissing parliament to hold new regional elections, unionists are emboldened to see the region brought closer into the federal fold.
07 November 2017
Xi Jinping and China's 19th National CPC Congress
The latest congress of the Communist Party of China elevates Xi Jinping's absolute power and paves the way for China's superpower status.
30 October 2017
Political protests following presidential election in Kyrgyzstan
Anti-government protests will continue in Kyrgyzstan following the election of the ruling SDPK-led coalition’s favoured candidate, Sooronbay Jeenbekov, as the country’s next president.
25 October 2017
Kurdistan regional crisis
While widely supported inside the Kurdistan region, the Kurdish independence referendum held in September 2017 has triggered a swift and aggressive response from Baghdad, as well as neighboring Iran and Turkey. The involvement of Iranian backed militias in the advance on Kirkuk greatly increases the risk of further clashes and unrest in the near-term, while US intransigence opens the door for increased Russian influence in the region.
17 October 2017
The long game: the takeaways from 7 October nationwide protests in Russia
The latest mass protests across Russia on 7 October showed that the threat of police arrest and violence failed to deter opposition protesters from gathering in 80 cities across the country. While Putin’s victory remains a near certainty in the March 2018 presidential election, the protests signal discontent against his rule among a growing number of Russians.
10 October 2017
Catalonia’s independence referendum triggers unprecedented constitutional crisis
Even if a solution is reached to prevent a unilateral declaration of independence, Barcelona and Madrid are going to continue feuding over autonomy until one side gives in.
26 September 2017
Anti-government protests erupt in Togo
A new wave of protests erupted nationwide against President Gnassingbé, but it has differences from previous bouts of unrest.
19 September 2017
The humanitarian and political crisis in Rakhine state
The latest bout of violence in northern Rakhine marks the emergence of an armed Rohingya insurgency that threatens to seriously undermine any prospects for peace and stability in the state, especially in light of the military’s ongoing brutal crackdown on the Rohingya population.
13 September 2017
Super storms as natural security threat
Catastrophic storm systems like hurricanes Harvey and Irma show how the environment can become a national security threat.
06 September 2017
August 2017
August 2017 Round-up: important developments and what we’re tracking for next month.
28 August 2017
Protests in Morocco’s Rif region
Protests continue across the Rif region as government takes a confused and contradictory approach to the valid concerns of local Berber residents.
23 August 2017
The 'Trump factor' and the North Korean nuclear threat in the Pacific
The violent rhetoric of Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un raises the stakes but does not substantially alter the risk of conflict in the region.
14 August 2017
Nawaz Sharif’s resignation to trigger new protests in Pakistan
Protests are expected to intensify in the near-term following the resignation of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and ahead of new general elections in June 2018.
08 August 2017
July 2017
July 2017 Round-up: important developments and what we’re tracking for next month.